The countdown has begun in the race for the Ondo governorship seat. Dare Odufowokan, Assistant Editor and Damisi Ojo, in this report present a status report on the contest and project likely outcomes
EXPECTEDLY, next Saturday’s governorship election in Ondo State has been much discussed within and outside the Sunshine State, thereby generating a lot of heat with individuals, groups and zones poised for a political showdown as the date for the election that will determine who succeeds outgoing Governor Olusegun Mimiko inches closer.
For months, indigenes of the various zones in the state have gone to town with demands that their respective areas should be given the opportunity to produce the next governor of the state. And given that the three senatorial zones had all produced a governor for the state in the past, the battle for which zone gets the next shot has been an open one.
Beyond the zones, the struggle for who succeeds Mimiko is also tough within the political class in the state. While the ruling party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), which returned to power in the state following Mimiko’s defection from the Labour Party (LP) in October 2014, is unwilling to be eased out of power, the opposition All Progressives Congress (APC) which has been struggling to oust the Mimiko-led administration since 2012 is bent on taking over.
And recently, the hitherto moribund Alliance for Democracy (AD), emerged as a third force emerged in what many had thought would be a two horse race between the PDP and the APC. The defection of Olusola Oke to the AD from the APC after failing to win the party’s governorship ticket band his eventual emergence as the flag bearer of the AD, threw the party up as a contender in the fierce power struggle.
Expectedly, before the parties picked their governorship candidates, the different zones and interest groups lobbied vigorously for the frontline parties to pick one of their own as governorship candidate. Spats flew and tension rose.
Negotiations followed severe disagreements occasioned mostly by permutations and agitations. At the end of it all, amidst confusion and crisis in all three cases, the three leading political parties settled for, or were helped to settle for candidates that will hopefully, contest next week’s Guber election.
Ironically, at the end of the anxious wait by all and sundry from far and near, all the three senatorial zones got one of their sons running for governor on the platform of one of the frontline political parties. And the stage appeared set for a battle of the zones. Analyst went to work and predicted an election that is too close to call.
The ruling party, which produced its candidate first, shocked not a few pundits when it settled for Eyitayo Jegede, the immediate past Attorney-General of the state, who is from the same Central senatorial zone as outgoing governor Mimiko. The opposition APC pitched its tent with the agitation for power to move to the Northern senatorial district when it announced Rotimi Akeredolu, another former Attorney-General of the state, as its candidate. And after much intrigues, the AD endorsed Olusola Oke, from the Southern senatorial district as its flag bearer.
Promptly, political realignment beyond political party membership commenced. Pundits predicted a tough contest and the candidates and their parties capitalized on the zoning debate as much as they could in their campaigns. With each candidate working hard to secure the votes of the people from his zone, the real battle appeared to be about who can pouch more votes from his opponents in their strongholds.
A twist
But all that was before the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) jolted the political calculations on ground and unexpectedly substituted Jegede’s name with fellow party man, Jimoh Ibrahim, on the strength of a court order. Though Mimiko and the PDP in the state kicked, Ibrahim, who is a chieftain of the Senator Modu Sherrif-led faction of the PDP, is still on INEC’s list as the party’s candidate till today.
Expectedly, Jegede and his party went to court to seek redress when it appeared a political solution was in sight. But rather than give a directive on the matter, the Court of Appeal, Abuja, reserved judgment ’till when it is ready’ in the appeal filed by Jegede seeking to be re-listed as candidate of PDP in the Nov.26 election.
Justice Ibrahim Salauwa led two other Justices of the panel to reserve the judgment after arguments were adopted by counsel to parties. “Now that counsel to parties have concluded arguments on this appeal, the judgment is reserved. Parties would be informed when we are ready,” the judge said.
The development further complicated the chances of the ruling PDP in the forthcoming election as the uncertainty over who will eventually fly the party’s banner in the election remains. Pundits insist it is too early to conclude that Ibrahim is the final choice of the party. “Not with INEC saying it will continue to obey court order on the matter,” a party source told The Nation on Friday.
Ibrahim’s unexpected entrance into the picture, not only changed the PDP’s candidate, it also disrupted the earlier “all zones contest” arrangement as the candidate of the Central senatorial district, Jegede, paved the way for another Southern senatorial candidate, that is Ibrahim himself, who is from Igbotako in Okitipupa Local Government Area of the state.
Should he remain the candidate of the party till election day, pundits say Ibrahim will be jostling for the votes of the southern voters with Oke, who is from the same area as him. Similarly, the emergence of Ibrahim in place of Jegede, should it subsists till voting day, has turned the electorate in Ondo central, made up of Ondo and Akure kingdoms, into the beautiful brides of the contest.
“Now, whoever is able to garner the most votes in Akure and Ondo is most likely to win the race. Ironically, the central senatorial district is the most populated, followed by the south and then the north in a distant third position. Jegede’s disqualification has altered earlier permutations and the people of the central senatorial district may just decide who wins the race.
“And of course, Mimiko will play a crucial role in who wins the election now that his candidate, Jegede is no longer in contention. If he decides to dump his party’s new candidate and pitch his tent elsewhere, his choice will seriously impact on the outcome of the election. As it is, it is not likely he will support Ibrahim’s candidacy,” a chieftain of the ruling party from Akure explained.
Mimiko’s dillemma
Barely two weeks to the November 26th date of the gubernatorial election in Ondo State, the camp of Governor Mimiko is still grappling with the uncertainty created by the unexpected substitution of Jegede’s name with fellow party man, Jimoh Ibrahim, by INEC. The Nation learnt that following weeks of uncertainty over Jegede’s fate, many of Mimiko’s associates and political supporters are already expressing worry over what they describe as a very serious threat to his succession plan.
According to inside sources, the governor’s men are scared of the possibility of the election holding without their camp having a say in who succeeds Mimiko. An aide to the governor, who revealed that discussions are in top gear within Mimiko’s political family on how best to approach the development before it is too late, said while the governor and a few of his lieutenants are still hopeful that Jegede will surmount the legal hurdles before him and contest the election, many of their supporters are of the opinion that there is an urgent need for a fallback position in case their candidate remains shut out of the race.
“It is a very complex situation, especially for us in Mimiko’s political family. We are worried that those who want to ensure the political failure of our governor are the ones behind Jegede’s travails. The plan is to frustrate his succession plans. And we all know how dangerous it is for a governor to leave office and hand over to someone who doesn’t share his views.
“With Jegede, Mimiko got it right. He went for someone the people of Ondo are happy with. Many people see Jegede as the man to complete our party’s dream for the state. The acceptance was massive and it was certain that he will win the election. But the enemies struck and through Jimoh Ibrahim and his cohorts, they threw spanner in the works, creating confusion in our camp,” our source said.
He, however, added that a lot depends on the governor regarding what his camp will do should Jegede fail to win his way back into INEC’s list of governorship candidates early enough. According to him, not a few people are worried that the development has halted Jegede’s electioneering campaign.
“Most worrisome is the disruption of our campaigns. The time is ticking and we are worried, very worried. But the governor is still very optimistic that Jegede will make it and contest the election. But not a few of our leaders are asking for an alternative political arrangement that will ensure that we are not shut out of the process that will produce the next governor of the state,” he added.
Sources close to the governor also said in spite of his determination to stop the governorship dream of Ibrahim at all cost, he is wary of entering into any arrangement that will portray him as working against the interest of the PDP in Ondo State. This has seen him threading softly with suggestions by his associates that he endorse one of the candidates already cleared for the race by INEC.
“As a loyal party man, Mimiko is wary of being seen to be engaging in anti-party activities. He strongly believes that the PDP will still unite and find its feet soon. He has been severally advised to give directive to his people to support one of the candidates already in the race, most especially on the platform of any other party aside the PDP,” a source said.
“No, it’s not about party at all. I’m in PDP and by the way I also heard a lot of rumours doing the rounds about me going to APC or making alliances with other parties. There’s nothing, absolutely nothing like that. I want to assure the people of the state, members and officials of PDP that in this gubernatorial election, Jegede will contest as the candidate of PDP,” the governor said recently.
But while the governor is still optimistic that Jegede could still make the ballot, many of his associates and aides, according to reliable reports, are urging him to consider pitching his tent elsewhere before it is too late. It was gathered that several meetings have been held to discuss the possibility of an alternate plan.
An aide of the governor, who debunked rumours that the governor is already supporting a particular candidate in another political party, said while there are talks about the necessity and possibility of such an action now or later, convincing the governor to buy into such plan, given his confidence in Jegede, remains a serious dilemma.
“The governor is hopeful and we share his assurances, but quite a number of our people are impatient with the court process which Jegede is hoping to benefit from. To this end, we are already having talks about the need for an alternate plan. What is difficult now is convincing the governor to key into this and then deciding who that could be.
“It is not true, as at today, that Mimiko or his faction of the PDP, is already supporting any of the candidates out there. Yes, there are talks, but we are in a dilemma as to how to go about it. It is not an easy decision, especially for Governor Mimiko. But those who are worried are justified because our succession plan is obviously threatened,” he said.
Our source also confirmed the fact that several overtures have been made to the governor’s political camp by various political parties and individuals within and outside the state, since the substitution of Jegede’s name with Ibrahim’s, but quickly added that Mimiko is yet to promise any of the parties or candidate his support.
“The truth is that people, within and outside the state, have been talking to him about the election on the strength of the removal of Jegede’s name. They all want his support for their candidates. He is the political leader of the state and they all know it. They know they cannot win in Ondo without Mimiko. But he hasn’t promised anyone of them his support,” our source said.
However, our sources all confirmed the fact that the governor and his camp will never make do without the candidacy of Jimoh Ibrahim as the flag bearer of the ruling party. “One thing is sure; we will never work for Ibrahim as the PDP candidate. We will never support his ambition. He is not our candidate. He will never be,” an associate of Mimiko affirmed.
Similarly, Publicity Secretary of the PDP in the state, Banji Okunomo, said Ibrahim is not keen about being governor but is only working for some fifth columnists outside the PDP. According to him, Ibrahim had ceased to be a member of the PDP, whose non-membership of the PDP had been verified at the ward, local government or state levels, having openly defected to the Accord Party.
